Gilder’s Guideposts Newsletters
Chinese Semiconductor Equipment Companies Boom as Sanctions Backfire
Preventing China from importing advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment was supposed to strangle China’s efforts to make elite chips. China’s response: make the very equipment the West tried to deny them. As a result, Chinese equipment vendors are steadily gaining share in global markets. The sanctions aimed at freezing China at mature nodes have instead prompted […]
Trump: Reagan’s True Heir
We are confirmed free traders. Trade flows are information. In our information theory of the economy, nothing is more important than letting information flow undistorted. Still, we are not especially worried about Trump’s tariff threats because on net, he is doing the economy far more good than bad. The big economics lesson of the past […]
KLA: Guardian of Yield in the Age of Atomic Precision
In a World of $30,000 Wafers, Imperfection Is No Longer an Option The future of computing will be built on atomic precision. In a world where each finished 2nm wafer can cost nearly $30,000, the margin for error collapses. One “killer defect” can add up to financial catastrophe. Detecting those defects and remedying the processes […]
Foundry Power in 2030: Why China Will Lead in Capacity but Taiwan Will Still Rule the Market
The semiconductor industry is undergoing a transformation. By 2030, China is expected to become the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturing base by volume, surpassing Taiwan in total foundry capacity measured in wafers per month. But this physical lead will not translate into dominance over the semiconductor market’s most lucrative segment. The global center of gravity in […]
Tesla’s Robotaxi Platform Could Drive AI Dominance
Tesla’s Robotaxi platform could drive AI dominance in the years ahead. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) , a recommendation in the dominates the electric vehicle (EV) market in the United States with an estimated share of 44%. However, artificial intelligence—not batteries—will determine its leadership in the next wave of automotive innovation: autonomous mobility. Earlier this year, Elon […]
Apple’s Tit-for-Tat Against Nvidia: From Collaboration to Competition
In February 2025, we advanced a sweeping thesis: Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) ambitions in artificial intelligence (AI) would ultimately hinge not on a software layer or a polished user experience, but on sovereignty—on owning the infrastructure beneath the interface. At the center of this wager was Baltra, Apple’s unreleased server-grade AI chip. The world may have […]
Profiting From Metrology in the Age of Advanced Packaging
The growing complexity of semiconductors is spurring innovation in metrology: the theory, practice, and application of measurement. In semiconductor manufacturing, metrology encompasses the measurement and characterization of tiny structures and materials. It plays a key role in ensuring the precision and quality control of devices at the nanometer (nm) and, increasingly, angstrom scales (1 angstrom […]
The Real Cost of Sanctions? Sales Drop 9.5% for China Equipment But Surge 33.9% for Local Vendors
After 23 Quarters of Sanctions, Sales of China’s Semiconductor Equipment Industry Are Accelerating—While the Non-Chinese AreLosing Market Share It has now been 23 quarters—nearly six full years—since the U.S. government first imposed sanctions on Huawei. Since then, a wave of escalating controls has targeted China’s access to advanced semiconductor technology, including U.S., Japanese, and Dutch […]
Micron Builds Momentum in AI Memory Infrastructure
Micron (NASDAQ: MU) is building momentum in AI memory infrastructure and entering a new era of memory-centric design. Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) latest earnings call indicated compute is no longer the bottleneck. Memory density, bandwidth, and thermals now shape the architecture and economics of accelerated computing. In that new hierarchy, two technologies stand at the forefront: […]
Nova Ltd. versus KLA versus Camtek: Metrology in the Age of Advanced Packaging
Introduction Nova Ltd. (NASDAQ: NVMI) has long been a precision player in semiconductor metrology, but for much of its history, it has lacked the scale and investor recognition of giants like KLA Corp. (NASDAQ: KLAC) or the inspection-driven momentum of Camtek Ltd. (NASDAQ: CAMT). In 2024, however, Nova crossed a critical threshold. Its advanced packaging […]