Gilder’s Guideposts Newsletters
A Chaos Crash?
President Trump announced last week his intention to impose a 100% tariff on movies filmed abroad but imported to the United States. “Our movie making business has been stolen from the United States of America, by other Countries, just like stealing candy from a baby,” President Trump proclaimed. This tariff, like all the other Trump […]
Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem
Morgan Stanley says the market for wafer fab equipment (WFE)—the machines that turn silicon into circuits—is going to boom. The firm raised its revenue estimate to $50 billion in 2026, up from $43.8 billion. Why? Memory. The management’s argument is that higher dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) and NAND prices will support bit growth, justify more […]
We Called It: Nvidia Moves into Intel
Way back in November 2024, we argued that Intel’s (NASDAQ: INTC) foundry business could be rescued only with a powerful external partner, the likely candidates being Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) or Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM). Our follow-up in January 2025 argued that, despite popular speculation, Nvidia, not AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) or Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), was uniquely positioned to […]
Bullish on America
Okay, you are a rising young executive at a Fortune 500 manufacturing firm. You have a great idea to boost factory productivity. It could increase earnings by billions of dollars per year for years to come. But it’s not quite a sure thing. Retooling the factory to try it out would cost a few billion […]
From DeepSeek to Alibaba: False Narratives Haunt Nvidia
Mainstream media chases headlines and scant facts, analysis, and distinctions. Okay, that’s no surprise! But it’s annoying when it affects our investments as it has done repeatedly to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). Every time a new player enters the conversation, whether a hyperscaler, a custom chipmaker, or a Chinese tech giant, the story is told as […]
The New Mercantilism’s Threat to Your Wealth
The classic argument against tariffs often falls on deaf ears because it is abstract and difficult to prove. As expounded by Adam Smith in “The Wealth of Nations,” the idea is that countries should produce goods and services in which they have a “comparative advantage.” It is hard to show abstractly. Such advantages are revealed by […]
SK hynix Dethrones Samsung in DRAM
For more than three decades, Samsung Electronics has stood unchallenged at the top of the DRAM market. No more. According to Korean media reports, SK hynix has overtaken Samsung for the first time in 33 years, claiming 36.3% of global DRAM market share versus Samsung’s 32.7%. Micron, while still in third place, has benefited from […]
SK hynix Dethrones Samsung in DRAM: Shipments, ASPs, Revenue, and the Coming Hybrid Bonding Transition
For more than three decades, Samsung Electronics has stood unchallenged at the top of the DRAM market. No more. According to Korean media reports, SK hynix has overtaken Samsung for the first time in 33 years, claiming 36.3% of global DRAM market share versus Samsung’s 32.7%. Micron, while still in third place, has benefited from […]
The Man of Steel
The curious conservative enthusiasm for Trump’s tariffs thrives on microdoses of good news, or at least not so bad news. It seems news that tariffs have not yet resulted in big price increases get three cheers and a round of “jolly good fellows.” But the lack of dramatic price increases only means that tariffs have […]
TSM’s Expansion Gamble and the Next Phase of Foundry Dominance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM), is making a huge bet that its unprecedented expansion in advanced nodes and overseas fabs will secure its dominance in the next era of chipmaking. The numbers are staggering: capex above $40 billion, capacity plans stretching across continents, and customer commitments spanning AI, smartphones, PCs, and hyperscaler applications-specific integrated […]