Taiwan Semiconductor Pulls Away

The global semiconductor foundry industry, which manufactures chips designed by fabless semiconductor companies such as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Apple (NASDAQ: APPL), Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), has expanded dramatically over the past 15 years, boosted by demand for smartphones, cloud computing infrastructure, and artificial intelligence processors. As we noted in a recent issue of Gilder’s Technology Report, total global semiconductor sales will hit a run rate of over $1 trillion this year.

Foundry growth has not been evenly distributed. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) (TSMC) now generates more revenue than the rest of the global foundry industry combined. The increasing complexity of semiconductor manufacturing has fundamentally changed the structure of the industry. Only a small number of companies can produce chips at the most advanced process nodes. The scale required to support those technologies has allowed TSMC to pull decisively ahead of its competitors.

Foundry industry expansion

Since 2010, the global semiconductor foundry industry has expanded by nearly sixfold, from approximately $28 billion to nearly $170 billion in 2025. (See Table 1). TSMC’s revenue, however, has risen some ninefold from approximately $13 billion in 2010 to more than $120 billion by 2025. Note also the huge difference in scale. TSMC’s projected 2025 revenue exceeds the combined revenue of all other foundry companies.

A structural break

The revenue data reveals a structural shift beginning around 2018, when TSMC’s revenue trajectory began accelerating significantly faster than the rest of the industry. This break coincides with the rapid adoption of advanced semiconductor manufacturing nodes required for artificial intelligence accelerators, high-performance computing processors, and next-generation smartphone chips. Companies capable of manufacturing at the most advanced nodes began capturing a disproportionate share of industry growth.

Chart 1 shows that the semiconductor foundry industry has effectively split into two different markets. Advanced nodes—“5 nanometers”, “3 nanometers”, and below—are used to produce the most advanced processors. Only two companies compete meaningfully in this segment: TSMC and Samsung Electronics.

Most other foundries operate primarily in mature nodes at 28 nanometers and above. These processes are widely used in automotive semiconductors, industrial devices, analog chips, and power management components. As chart 1 shows, no competitors to TSMC or Samsung appear at all for elite nodes up to “5nm.” Correspondingly, TSM makes only a modest effort at larger “legacy” nodes.

Chart 1

Because advanced nodes enable the processors used in artificial intelligence systems and high-performance computing infrastructure, this segment of the industry is growing significantly faster than the mature-node market. Samsung has recently begun ramping first-generation 2-nanometer production and expects advanced nodes to drive future revenue growth for its foundry business. Samsung’s foundry business, however, is far smaller than TSMC’s and continues to face profitability challenges thanks to heavy capital investment and the costs of ramping up new processes.

Investor takeaway

The semiconductor foundry industry has grown dramatically over the past decade as demand for advanced processors expanded across cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and mobile devices.

TSMC has captured the largest share of that growth. Samsung is the only foundry attempting to contest its leadership. As AI workloads increase demand for processors manufactured at “3 nm” and below, whether Samsung can continue to challenge TSMC will be the most interesting question for semiconductor investors.