Turns Out Teslas are Really, Really, Safe, and Will be Even Safer If You Stop Kibbitzing and Let It Drive

Despite priding ourselves on our media skepticism, for a long time it did not occur to us to doubt the repeated and widespread reports that Teslas and other electric cars are prone to burst into flames. It’s true that Teslas have burst into flames and it’s true that getting the batteries wet, as can happen in, say, a Category Five hurricane, can make that more likely.

The problem is with that little word “prone.” As in “a decided tendency,” worth remarking on because the probabilities are unusually high.

The probabilities are unusual—unusually low. Data from Tesla, affirmed by the National Fire Prevention Association (NFPA), says that your gasoline car is more than seven times more likely to catch on fire than a Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). One Tesla fire occurs for every 130 million miles driven. Meanwhile, the NFPA and the U.S. Department of Transportation say that for all U.S. vehicles, one fire occurs for every 18 million miles traveled.

One possible reason the Tesla fires have stuck in the public and the media imagination is that Tesla fires are genuine man-bites-dog events. Most car fires are caused by accidents setting off gasoline fires. Tesla fires, counterintuitively, are usually caused by water damage and when the cars are stationery. That’s creepy… and memorable.

Meanwhile, there is some reason to believe that the Tesla battery pack may serve as a safety feature in the event of a crash. The battery pack is rigid, fortified against accident, and heavy. The result is to strengthen the passenger section of the vehicles and allow for a large “crumple zone” to reduce the probability of injury in the event of an accident. The battery pack is also heavy, lowering the car’s center of gravity, which makes rollovers less likely and improves handling.

Where Tesla really shines on safety, though, is its Autopilot system, a triumph of the company’s pioneering progress in artificial intelligence. We tell that story in greater detail in an upcoming issue of the Gilder Technology Report, the upshot being we expect Tesla, along with Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with which it is partnered, to continue to be the two dominant technology companies of the decade.

U.S. government data shows that, on average, U.S. automobiles are involved in one crash per approximately 700,000 miles. Teslas not equipped with Autopilot did substantially better, recording one crash for every 1.4 million miles driven. But Teslas with Autopilot (switched on) do more than four times as well, crashing only one every 6.5 million miles on 2024 data.

The Greyhound bus company long used the slogan “Go Greyhound and leave the driving to us.” Sooner than you think, Elon will steal it.